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Bangladesh's Qualification Scenario for the WTC 2025 Final

Bangladesh currently finds itself in a tricky but hopeful position in the World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 cycle. With a Points Percentage (PCT) of 39.29%, the Tigers are currently ranked 6th, and they still have a potential to achieve up to 64.58% if they secure wins in their remaining matches. However, qualification for the WTC Final will require an almost flawless performance, along with some favorable outcomes in other teams' matches.

Recent Performance
Bangladesh has had a mixed run so far, starting with a 1-1 series draw at home against New Zealand. The loss in the second Test in Mirpur hurt their campaign, as they lost valuable points at home. A subsequent two-Test series loss to Sri Lanka further set them back.

However, Bangladesh bounced back strongly with a 2-0 clean sweep against Pakistan away from home, a landmark achievement that gave them a significant boost. This result propelled them to 4th place in the standings temporarily, before a loss to India in Chennai during the first Test of their current series pushed them back to 6th.

In the ongoing series against India, Bangladesh lost the first Test, which has made the task ahead even more challenging. Winning the remaining Test against India could improve their chances, though they will need consistent results to stay in contention.

Remaining Fixtures:
Bangladesh's remaining WTC fixtures are crucial to their qualification hopes:
1. India (away, one Test): A victory in this Test is essential if Bangladesh wants to keep their qualification dreams alive.
2. South Africa (home, two Tests): Playing in familiar home conditions will be an advantage for Bangladesh. Winning both matches will be critical to increase their PCT.
3. West Indies (away, two Tests): This series in the Caribbean offers an opportunity for Bangladesh to accumulate crucial points, particularly against a relatively unpredictable West Indies side.

Qualification Prospects
For Bangladesh to qualify for the WTC 2025 Final, they need to achieve a high PCT, ideally above 60%, which means winning nearly all their remaining games. Their best possible finish is 64.58%, which can only be achieved with a perfect run from now onwards. Even then, qualification will depend on how other teams perform, particularly those above them in the standings, like India, Australia, and New Zealand.

The competition remains fierce, as teams like India and Australia, currently at the top of the table, have a PCT of 71.67% and 62.50%, respectively. The cutoff for qualification is expected to be around 58-60%, meaning Bangladesh must not only perform well but also hope for unfavorable results for their closest competitors.

Challenges Ahead
One of the biggest challenges for Bangladesh is their inconsistency, particularly in adapting to different conditions. They will need to step up their performance in the upcoming series, especially given the formidable opponents like India and South Africa. Additionally, relying on other teams to lose matches adds a level of unpredictability to their qualification scenario.

While the path to the WTC 2025 Final remains difficult for Bangladesh, it is not impossible. A strong showing in their remaining fixtures, coupled with some favorable results from other matches, could see them challenge for a spot in the final. However, any slip-up could end their hopes, highlighting the importance of every Test match in this crucial phase of the WTC cycle.