Chinnaswamy stadium weather hourly | India vs New Zealand 1st Test, Day 5 Hourly Weather Update and Run Chase Analysis

The 1st Test between India and New Zealand at the Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru, has reached its final day, with New Zealand needing 107 runs to secure victory. The weather forecast for Day 5 is a critical factor that could impact the match's outcome, as rain could potentially disrupt play and help India stave off defeat.

Weather Forecast for Bengaluru, Day 5 (October 20, 2024)

According to the latest forecast from Accuweather, thunderstorms are expected early in the morning, followed by intermittent clouds and possible afternoon showers. Here's the hourly breakdown:

• 9 AM to 11 AM (IST):

  • Chances of Rain: 50% to 55%
  • Conditions: Thunderstorms expected.
  • Impact on Match: There could be a delayed start due to the rain. These hours are crucial for New Zealand, as any disruption will reduce their time to chase down the target.

• 11 AM to 1 PM (IST):

  • Chances of Rain: 35% to 40%
  • Conditions: Partially cloudy with sunny intervals.
  • Impact on Match: If rain clears up by 11 AM, the match is expected to continue without further interruptions. These hours might be the best for play, with fewer rain interruptions.

• 1 PM to 2 PM (IST):

  • Chances of Rain: 45% to 50%
  • Conditions: Increasing cloud cover, but likely to remain dry.
  • Impact on Match: As the day progresses, rain chances rise slightly, and play could continue under overcast conditions, which might benefit India’s bowlers.

• 2 PM to 4 PM (IST):

  • Chances of Rain: 55% to 60%
  • Conditions: Thunderstorms are predicted.
  • Impact on Match: This period presents the highest chance of disruption. If New Zealand does not make significant progress by this time, India could benefit from stoppages due to rain.

• 4 PM to 5 PM (IST):

  • Chances of Rain: 39% to 33%
  • Conditions: Decreasing chances of thunderstorms.
  • Impact on Match: The weather could clear slightly towards the evening, but it might be too late for any uninterrupted play.

Target and Run Rate Analysis

New Zealand needs 107 runs to win, which is a low target. However, weather disruptions could make the chase tricky. Let’s calculate how long New Zealand would take to chase down the target at a run rate of 3.5 runs per over:

• Required runs: 107
• Run rate: 3.5 runs per over
• Overs needed: 1073.5=30.57frac{107}{3.5} = 30.573.5107​=30.57 overs

Assuming an over takes about 4 minutes, the total time to chase down 107 runs would be:

• Total time required: 30.57×4=122.2830.57 imes 4 = 122.2830.57×4=122.28 minutes, or approximately 2 hours and 2 minutes of playing time.

Impact of Weather on Chase

Considering the weather forecast, New Zealand will likely need to manage their chase around rain interruptions. If rain delays play in the morning and afternoon, the chase could be stretched across the day, and rain could favor India by reducing the total number of overs available for New Zealand.

• If play begins at 11 AM: New Zealand will have about 2 hours of good weather (11 AM to 1 PM), giving them enough time to complete the chase if they score at or above the 3.5 run rate.
• If rain interrupts after 2 PM: A thunderstorm between 2 PM and 4 PM could delay the chase and eat into New Zealand's time to finish the match.

India’s Strategy: How Long Can They Withstand?

India's only hope to avoid defeat is through weather disruptions. If rain delays play long enough, or if overs are lost due to bad light or thunderstorms, India could salvage a draw. However, the onus is on New Zealand to play aggressively when conditions allow. Given the forecast, India needs to hope that rain consistently interrupts play during the key hours.

• Morning Rain: If rain persists until 11 AM, India could avoid up to 2 hours of play.
• Afternoon Thunderstorms: The prediction of thunderstorms from 2 PM to 4 PM could wipe out another potential session of play.

India needs these rain interruptions to significantly eat into New Zealand's available time to chase, particularly from 2 PM onwards when thunderstorms are most likely.

India's bowling attack will be crucial on Day 5 as they defend a modest target of 107 against New Zealand. With the pitch at the Chinnaswamy Stadium showing signs of wear and tear, spin could play a major role in India's strategy. Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja will likely exploit the cracks and rough patches on the surface, which could aid turn and uneven bounce. The fast bowlers, led by Mohammed Shami and Umesh Yadav, will look to use reverse swing as the ball gets older, but with overcast conditions and potential rain, moisture could assist their seam movement early in the day. However, the challenge for India's bowlers will be navigating the rain interruptions and keeping up consistent pressure in limited playing time, knowing they need quick wickets to defend the low total.

New Zealand is in a commanding position with only 107 runs to chase, but the weather in Bengaluru could play a decisive role. Rain interruptions, particularly during the afternoon, could prevent New Zealand from completing the chase in time. India, on the other hand, will hope for extended rain delays to force a draw in this low-scoring thriller.

This Test match has been nothing short of thrilling, with top-notch performances throughout. India's top-order looked solid with some excellent batting, but the game turned when they faced the second new ball. A dramatic collapse followed, as they lost their last seven wickets for just 54 runs. William O'Rourke was the game-changer, making the ball misbehave after Tim Southee had already removed the in-form Sarfaraz Khan. O'Rourke struck with his very first delivery, dismissing Rishabh Pant, and from that point on, India was in serious trouble. Despite brilliant innings from Sarfaraz and Pant, India finds themselves on the back foot. New Zealand needs just 107 runs to win, but India will aim to make it feel like a much larger target. The bowlers have some assistance from the pitch, and spin could be crucial. Interestingly, India's lowest-ever successful defense in a Test match was 107 runs against Australia at the Wankhede in 2004. With Day 5 starting at 09:15 AM (IST), New Zealand has the advantage, but there’s always room for surprises in cricket.