New Zealand's Road to the 2025 WTC Final: A Tough Climb Ahead

New Zealand's path to the 2025 World Test Championship (WTC) Final faces significant challenges, especially after a mixed start to their campaign. As of late September 2024, they sit in fourth place with 42.86% of possible points and have a tough road ahead.

Current Situation:
New Zealand has played seven matches, winning three and losing four. They achieved key victories against South Africa at home (2-0), but suffered defeats against Australia at home (0-2) and in the first Test against Sri Lanka (away). This puts them in a precarious position, needing to maximize their results from their remaining fixtures to have a realistic chance of qualifying for the WTC final.

Remaining Matches:
New Zealand has six crucial matches left:
1 Test vs Sri Lanka (away): They must win this Test to stay in contention.
3 Tests vs India (away): India has been dominant in home conditions, so these matches will be very challenging. Winning at least two of these will be critical.
3 Tests vs England (home): Facing a resurgent England side under Ben Stokes, New Zealand will aim to leverage home conditions, though they will need to perform exceptionally well

Best Possible Outcome:
If New Zealand wins all their remaining matches, they can finish with a maximum of 71.42% of possible points. However, even a single loss could significantly reduce their chances. To secure a spot in the final, they likely need to win at least six of their last seven matches, especially with strong competition from teams like India and Australia.

Challenges:
India and England are formidable opponents, with India boasting an impressive home record. New Zealand’s spinners will be crucial in the subcontinent, and they will need to be at their best when facing India’s batting depth. Meanwhile, the home series against England presents its own difficulties, as England has been in strong form.

In summary, New Zealand's qualification for the 2025 WTC Final hinges on near-perfect results in their upcoming matches. With just one Test remaining against Sri Lanka, followed by tough tours of India and a home series against England, their journey is challenging but not impossible. They must maintain consistency and pull off some remarkable wins to keep their hopes alive.