Sri Lankas Race to the 2025 WTC Final

Sri Lanka has a solid, albeit challenging, opportunity to qualify for the 2025 ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final. As of September 2024, they sit at third place on the WTC points table with 50% of possible points from eight matches. They have won four and lost four, including key victories against Bangladesh and England but have dropped series to Pakistan and England away from home.

Remaining Matches

Sri Lanka has five matches left in this WTC cycle:

One Test at home against New Zealand

A two-match series away against South Africa

A two-match home series against Australia

For Sri Lanka to secure a spot in the WTC final, they will likely need to win at least four of their remaining five Tests, which would push their Points Percentage (PCT) to approximately 61.58%. If they win all five, their PCT would rise to 69.23%, significantly boosting their chances.

Challenges Ahead

Sri Lanka faces tough competition in their remaining series. Touring South Africa is historically difficult for Asian teams, though Sri Lanka has previously won a series there in 2019. Their spin strength at home could be advantageous, especially against New Zealand and Australia. However, securing wins against the defending WTC champions, Australia, will be a tall order.

Scenarios for Qualification

Even if Sri Lanka manages three wins and two losses from these matches, their PCT would be around 53.85%, which likely won't be enough based on historical trends. No team has qualified for a WTC final with a PCT below 55%. Hence, their best shot lies in winning at least four matches, while also hoping for favorable results from other teams like India and Australia, who are also competing for a spot.

With tough assignments ahead, Sri Lanka’s path to the WTC final is challenging but not impossible. Their destiny lies in their hands as they approach the crucial phase of their WTC campaign.